Rate Lock Advisory

Thursday, October 6th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, erasing yesterday’s afternoon gains. Stocks are also showing losses with the Dow down 171 points and the Nasdaq down 38 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32 (3.82%), but strength late yesterday is going to help keep this morning’s mortgage rates close to Wednesday’s early pricing. If you saw an intraday improvement in rates yesterday, you should see an increase of the same size this morning.



30 yr - 3.82%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock



Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

This morning’s only relevant economic data was last week’s unemployment update that showed 219,000 new claims for benefits were filed during the week. This was an increase from the previous week’s revised 190,000 initial filings and higher than expected, indicating the employment sector softened slightly last week. As a small sign of economic weakness, we can label the report good news for rates. Unfortunately, this is only a weekly snapshot and does not carry a high level of importance, minimizing its impact on this morning’s pricing.



Employment Situation

September's Employment report is set to be posted at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow. It is considered to be a key economic report that can heavily influence the financial and mortgage markets. The report gives us many statistics and readings on the employment situation, but the most important are the unemployment rate, the number of new jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for the unemployment rate to hold at 3.7%, an increase in payrolls of approximately 250,000 and a 0.3% rise in average earnings. Weaker than expected readings should rally bonds enough to improve mortgage rates, especially if the earnings data comes in light.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.